Price analysis 7/18: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, AVAX
Did Bitcoin bottom? The weekend crypto rally has extended into the start of a new week, leading traders to question whether the bottom is in.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $22,000 and Ether (ETH) traded above $1,500 on July 18, indicating that bulls are gradually returning to the cryptocurrency markets. This pushed the total crypto market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time since June 13, raising hopes that the worst of the bear market may be behind us.
In another positive sign, more than 80% of the total Bitcoin supply denominated in the United States dollar has been dormant for at least three months, according to crypto intelligence firm Glassnode. During previous bear markets, such an occurrence preceded the end of the bear phase.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
However, a report by Grayscale Investments voices a different opinion. It suggests that the current bear market in Bitcoin started in June 2022 and if history repeats itself, the bear phase could continue for 250 more days.
Can buyers maintain their momentum at higher levels or will bears continue to sell on rallies? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
After hesitating near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,986) for two days, Bitcoin made a decisive move higher on July 18. This up-move has broken above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle, indicating a possible trend reversal.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is flat but the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive territory, indicating that the momentum favors the buyers. The bulls will now attempt to overcome the barrier at $23,363.
If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the breakout level from the triangle, it will suggest buying at lower levels. That could increase the possibility of a break above $23,363. The pair could then rally to the pattern target of $28,171.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the triangle, it will indicate that the bears are aggressively defending the overhead zone between the resistance line of the triangle and $23,363. That could keep the pair inside the triangle for a few more days.
Ether broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $1,280 on July 16, which completed the ascending triangle pattern The bears tried to stall the up-move at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($1,336) on July 17 but the bulls did not relent.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The buyers resumed their purchase on July 18 and pushed the price above $1,500. This suggests the start of a new uptrend. The ETH/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $1,700 where the bears may pose a strong challenge.
If the next correction gets arrested at the 20-day EMA ($1,234), it will suggest that the sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could enhance the prospects of a break above $1,700.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and slips below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the pair to the support line of the triangle.
BNB rose above the 20-day EMA ($238) on July 14 and cleared the overhead hurdle at the 50-day EMA ($247) on July 16. The bears tried to pull the price back below the 50-day SMA on July 17 but the bulls held their ground.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The BNB/USDT pair resumed its up-move on July 18, suggesting that the low may have been made at $183. The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls are in control.
If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rally to $300 and then attempt an up-move to $350. This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the pair to $211.
Ripple (XRP) broke above the downtrend line on July 16 but the bears stalled the relief rally at the 50-day SMA ($0.35). The sellers tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on July 17 but the bulls did not budge and bought the dip.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up gradually and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating advantage to the bulls.
The XRP/USDT pair cleared the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA on July 18, invalidating the bearish descending triangle pattern. If bulls sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could pick up momentum and rally to $0.45.
To invalidate this bullish view, the bears will have to pull the pair back into the triangle. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls and sink the pair to the important support at $0.30.
After struggling to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.46), the bulls finally managed the feat on July 18. The price has reached the 50-day SMA ($0.50) which could act as a strong resistance.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The RSI in the positive territory indicates that the momentum favors the buyers. If bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $0.60 and then make a dash toward the stiff overhead resistance at $0.70.
Alternatively, if bulls fail to sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell aggressively on rallies. The pair could then drop back toward the critical support zone between $0.44 and $0.40.
Solana (SOL) broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 16, indicating that the uncertainty resolved in favor of the buyers. The bears attempted to pull the price back into the triangle on July 17 but the bulls held their ground.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The SOL/USDT pair is attempting to rise above the immediate resistance at $43. If that happens, the pair could rally to the psychological level at $50. This level may act as a hurdle but if crossed, the up-move could reach $60.
Conversely, if the price turns down from $43 and breaks below the moving averages, the pair could drop to the support line. A break and close below this level could suggest that bears are back in the game.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is trying to form a higher low at $0.06 and the bulls are attempting to push the price above the stiff overhead resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.07).
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to $0.08. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could clear the path for a rally to $0.09 and then to $0.10.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and slides below the intraday low made on July 13. That could sink the pair to the critical level at $0.05.
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($7.08) on July 16 but the bears pulled the price back below the level on July 17. This tough tussle between the bulls and the bears was resolved in favor of the buyers on July 18.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($7.79) to gain the upper hand. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $10.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are defending the 50-day SMA aggressively. The pair could then remain stuck between $6.36 and the 50-day SMA for a few days.
Polygon (MATIC) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($0.55) on July 13 and rose above the overhead resistance at $0.63. This completed the bullish ascending triangle pattern.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The MATIC/USDT pair picked up momentum and reached the pattern target of $0.95 on July 18. The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the RSI into the overbought territory and the pair is near the psychological level of $1. This points to a possible consolidation or correction in the near term.
The first support on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.63). If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The pair could then attempt a rally to the 200-day SMA ($1.25). This bullish view could invalidate on a break below $0.63.
Avalanche (AVAX) has broken above the overhead resistance at $21.35, indicating the completion of the ascending triangle pattern. This increases the likelihood of a trend reversal.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($19.56) and the 50-day SMA ($19.79) are close to completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory indicating advantage to buyers. If bulls sustain the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could start a new up-move. The pattern target of the breakout from the triangle is $29.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels. That could pull the pair down to the support line.
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